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The Northwood Perspective

Yin and Yang: The Importance of Effective Implementation, along with Planning

BY
Russ Rodrigues
Perspective Newsletter

The storm that raged through the financial markets in the first quarter of 2020 has eased somewhat, allowing investors a chance to catch their breath and assess the impact. While the possibility of further market distress and upheaval in the coming months remains, we can and should take advantage of this moment of relative calm to survey the landscape and learn which investing approaches have and haven’t worked in this tumultuous environment.In previous papers over the past month, we’ve discussed the importance of clear-eyed planning and being well-prepared, because navigating a significant downturn effectively has to start well before a crash. Among other things, proper preparation includes:

This kind of planning is the first step and main defense against disaster. But the next step—the implementation choices you make—are also a major influence on the results you achieve.Surveying the investment landscape in the aftermath of Q1 feels a bit like looking back at one’s footprints after having walked through a minefield. Reflecting on a previous market downdraft, Warren Buffett, in his 2001 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, uses a more colloquial analogy: “…You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out”.

As if intent on proving Buffett correct, a number of investment strategies have been suddenly and unceremoniously revealed to have had much more risk than they were previously letting on. We won’t single out anyone in particular, but as the first quarter results come in, some of those risky strategies have reported truly disastrous performance. In that context, we remain extremely comfortable with our conservative approach to the management of investments.Temporary market price movements aren’t a major cause for concern, assuming you have the liquidity and resilience to ride them out. The real concern is permanent losses of capital: funds that implode, debt securities that default, equities that end up in bankruptcy, funds that have insufficient liquidity and become forced sellers at fire-sale prices, and structured products that crater because they didn’t take the possibility of extreme events into account. There’s often no recovering from these sorts of incidents.This is not a new phenomenon. Investors are notoriously subject to the shiny, enticing opportunities that can seem tempting and can lure them off track. While blow-ups might not all be avoidable, proper diversification, a conservative approach, and the avoidance of leverage prevents these unforeseen events from compromising the achievement of your overall goals.

In our role as a family office and manager of investment managers, we see a wide range of investment products and performance across all sorts of styles, asset classes and jurisdictions. We also are particularly plugged in to the developments at the investment managers that we have hired to manage funds for our own clients. Additionally, the CIOs of the Wigmore Association have been holding weekly update calls to share their regional observations, which gives us a vantage point covering most of the globe.This wide array of perspectives is instrumental in helping us stay abreast of what is actually happening out on the front lines of capital markets. These first-hand accounts offer much greater detail, nuance, and insight than is available from raw market data or from financial media reporting, and helps us provide guidance and counsel to our own client families.

Surveying the Investment Landscape

Here is a quick tour of how each asset class fared in the first quarter, starting with the best performers:

The Good:

The Not So Bad:

The Not So Good:

Implementation and Planning

You can see from our survey of the investment landscape that prudent implementation is as important as good planning and preparation.Our implementation strategy remains unchanged – focus first on funding your goals with the appropriate assets (e.g. non-risk assets for near-term or high-priority goals, and risk assets for longer-term or optional goals), and then observe some timeless rules: diversify, keep a close eye on liquidity, shun leverage, stick to fundamentals, avoid the too-good-to-be true pitches that can become blow-ups, and be sure to choose high quality, transparent investment managers.

With all of these good steps in place, an investment strategy doesn’t need to rely on trying to accurately predict the future. Instead, you can be can be confident that a well-planned, well-implemented investment strategy will be able to preserve wealth and meet goals in whatever market conditions it faces.

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Russ Rodrigues

Russ is a member Northwood’s investment team. He is primarily responsible for economic research along with investment manager selection and oversight. Prior to joining Northwood, Russ was the Senior Investment Officer for a single-family office, where he was responsible for research and execution of external investments covering all major asset classes and geographies. Before serving private clients, Russ was an investment professional working for the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, and a management consultant at McKinsey and Company. He began his career as a Naval Warfare Officer in the Royal Canadian Navy.

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