The Northwood Reading List - March 2026

This Canadian winter was a good reminder of how unreliable “normal” has become. Toronto experienced one of the snowiest, record setting winters on record, while Vancouver didn’t register a single official snow day for the first time since the early 1980s. From weather extremes to market extremes, it’s the same story - what used to feel unusual is happening more often.  

The war in Iran reminds us of black swan risk. We’ve never put much weight on market forecasts, and this year is a good reminder of why. In early January, consensus expectations for the S&P 500 were high single digit, maybe low double digit increases. Fast forward to March, and the index is down roughly 5%, largely driven by a geopolitical shock that few people had modeled – Israel and the United States attacking Iran.

We’ve seen this movie before. In the spring of 2025, markets sold off sharply around tariffs and trade policy, only to recover strongly later in the year. Forecasts tend to extrapolate what feels visible in the moment, but markets are shaped by events that, by definition, don’t show up cleanly in models. A good reminder of why disciplined asset allocation - not short term forecasting - drives the majority of long term outcomes.  

On AI, we’re in the middle of a software panic. Like geopolitical events, no one exactly knows how things will shift with software. Some of the current panic could be overblown, but it’s also apparent many companies will be disrupted. And when it comes to the AI players themselves, we are seeing trends. ChatGPT was the first into the mainstream, now we hear way more about Claude. History tells us that being first doesn’t guarantee being best - AOL was once the most recognized brand on the internet.  

As always, we’ve curated a mix of books, articles, podcasts, and thought-provoking content we think you’ll enjoy.

Happy reading,

The Northwood Team

Click on the titles below to see the full content.

Article Recommendations

A contracting population need not be a catastrophe – The Economist

Falling fertility rates across developed economies are reshaping labour markets, productivity and long-term growth expectations.

Norway Shrugged – Fredrik on Paragraph

An essay examining how Norway’s wealth tax has led to an exodus of entrepreneurs from the country and what led to the creation of the wealth tax.

AI Doesn’t Reduce Work - It Intensifies It – Harvard Business Review

While AI improves efficiency at the task level, it often leads to more work overall as expectations rise and workloads expand rather than shrink.

The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis (Original)  – Citrini Research

The 2028 Global Intelligence Boom (Rebuttal) – In The Trenches by Michael Bloch

The original essay/story was the talk of the investing world for a few days. A longer read, and a rebuttal was also created. It’s a debate over whether rapid advances in AI will trigger economic disruption by displacing white-collar work or instead drive a surge in productivity, new industries, and long-term growth.

Your Brain Is Not a Computer – The Curious Mind

An essay arguing that the human mind is not a logic-driven processor but a biological, experience-shaped system – highlighting why intuition and judgment remain uniquely valuable in an AI-driven world.

The Music Has Stopped in Private Markets – CFA Institute

A thoughtful critique of liquidity risk and capital excess in parts of the private markets ecosystem. Not a call to abandon private assets, but a useful reminder that structure, patience, and selectivity matter.

When You’ve Made Enough Money to Cause Family Tension – Harvard Business Review

A favorite of ours, this piece details that as wealth grows, families often face a shift from building a business to managing a shared enterprise, where aligning expectations, educating heirs, and navigating control becomes essential to preserving both capital and relationships.

The Autonomous Battlefield – Foreign Affairs

Advances in AI, drones, and autonomous systems are rapidly transforming warfare, shifting combat toward faster, machine-driven operations that challenge traditional military strategy and human decision-making.

What 81,000 People Want from AI – Anthropic

Drawing on large-scale interviews across 159 countries, the study reveals a mix of optimism and anxiety - highlighting that while people see AI as a powerful tool for productivity and progress, they remain deeply concerned about its impact on jobs, identity, and trust.

Doomscrolling is Over – The Atlantic

Examines how the viral “monitoring the situation” meme reflects a deeper cultural shift toward constant information consumption, where the illusion of staying informed becomes a coping mechanism in an increasingly chaotic and overwhelming world.

Book Recommendations

Big Ideas & Bold Thinking

The Great Mental Models Series by Shane Parrish

A comprehensive framework for improving decision-making by drawing on timeless ideas across disciplines - helping readers simplify complexity, reduce blind spots, and think more clearly about the world.

Upstream by Dan Heath

A framework for solving problems before they occur by addressing systemic causes

Power and Prediction by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans & Avi Goldfarb

Argues that AI is fundamentally a prediction technology that will reshape decision-making and that its greatest impact will come not from improving individual tasks, but from redesigning entire systems and industries around it.

History & Global Affairs

The Power Law by Sebastian Mallaby

A history of venture capital and the investors who shaped Silicon Valley.

Chip War by Chris Miller

A geopolitical history of semiconductors and their central role in economic and military competition.

Fiction: Literary & Historical

Commonwealth by Ann Patchett

A multi-decade family story about relationships, memory, and chance.

The Secret History by Donna Tartt

A modern literary classic about intellectual obsession and moral collapse.

Legacy & Life Stories

Being Mortal by Atul Gawande

A thoughtful examination of how modern medicine approaches aging and end-of-life care, arguing that dignity, meaning, and quality of life should guide medical decisions.

Podcast & Conversation Recommendations

Invest Like the Best

Patrick O’Shaughnessy interviews founders and investors about building enduring businesses.

Dwarkesh Podcast

Long-form conversations on AI, science and the future of technology.

The Knowledge Project

Shane Parrish interviews leaders about decision-making and mental models.

The Best One Yet

20-minute podcast with the 3 business news stories you need to hear daily.

The Dream of Finishing One’s To-Do List in “Retirement Plan”

A short animated film that captures the quiet illusion of saving life’s ambitions for later, revealing how the promise of “someday” often collides with the finite reality of time.

Keeping It Simple In Your Investment Office - The Family Office Sherpa‍

A discussion on how simplifying investment processes and focusing on core principles can help reduce complexity, avoid behavioural pitfalls, and improve long-term decision-making within investment offices.

TV Shows, Movies & Documentaries

Task

A new series exploring the high-pressure professional environment of FBI agents.

Tokyo Vice

A crime drama about investigative journalism and organized crime in Tokyo.

The Diplomat

A political drama examining diplomacy and global conflict.

Hijack  

A tense thriller following the seven-hour hijacking of a commercial flight, where a corporate negotiator must use his skills to try to save the passengers and crew.

The Deepest Breath

A visually stunning documentary following elite free divers, exploring the intersection of risk, discipline, and obsession—and what drives individuals to push the limits of human performance.

Sinners

The most nominated film in the history of the Academy Awards. So much more than a vampire movie.

Sentimental Value

A reflective drama examining family relationships and identity.

‍

As lifelong learners, we are always interested in reading or listening to material that broadens our horizons, challenges our thinking, and provides an all-important context for the decisions we make. This is true for the entire Northwood team.

We’d also be interested in hearing what you’ve been reading or listening to lately. If you’ve come across any particularly insightful books, articles, shows, or podcasts, please feel free to send them to us at tm@northwoodfamilyoffice.com, bcj@northwoodfamilyoffice.com or sd@northwoodfamilyoffice.com.

Thanks to the many people who have already shared their ideas.

All the best,

Northwood Team